Source: Wikicommons, Heinrich Boell Stiftung. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:General_Buhari_holding_a_broom_at_a_campign_rally.jpg
Nigerians have chosen General Muhammadu Buhari, a former military
ruler, over incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, to be their president.
Following an election that saw 41 people killed in the north of the country, Goodluck conceded defeat, and congratulated Buhari on his victory.
Buhari’s military regime from 1983 to 1985 was draconian:
he systematically repressed freedom of expression through the jailing
of journalists, radical public intellectuals, and student protesters. He is now saying that “the global triumph of democracy has shown that another and a preferable path to change is possible”.Nigerians and the international community will be watching whether
this time around Buhari will work for the common good in Nigeria.
Corruption and crisis
The general political and economic situation in Nigeria is
problematic. Nigeria is home to a corrupt government. According to
Transparency International, Nigeria is ranked 136 out of 175 states in
terms of perceptions of corruption.
Women are underrepresented in political affairs: until now, the House
of Representatives had only one female principal officer, and only 7% of the 362 members were women. The House of Representatives committee on women
has called for more participation from women in the nation’s politics.
We will now see if the new government responds to this demand.
The economy is in crisis: Nigeria has an unhealthy dependence on its
oil exports, which represent more than 80% of its national income. There
has now been a drop in oil prices, which means that public sector jobs will have to be cut; 24% of Nigerians are unemployed. Nigeria must double its investment
in infrastructure, and improve its power sector, the water and
sanitation sector, its road networks, and its air transport safety.
Nigeria has to be serious about health. The World Health Organisation
recommends that governments spend 15% of their budget on health, but
Nigeria spends only 6% of its budget. Nigeria had 40,000 pregnancy-related deaths a year account for approximately 14 percent of the world’s total in 2012.
Northern exposure
The situation in northern Nigeria is critical. Since 2014, more than 6,000 civilians have been killed by Boko Haram. Around one million Nigerians have been forcibly displaced
within the country, and 200,000 have fled to Cameroon, Niger or Chad.
Colonel Joseph Nouma of the Maroua Defence Regiment in the Nigerian army
told the IRIN news service:
When you go to border villages, all you see are women and
children and old people. Young [men], between the ages of ten and 45
are no longer there. They are across the [Nigerian] border with Boko
Haram militants.
In the north, regional actors have been more active than the Nigerian
government in fighting Boko Haram. With the approval of the African
Union, Nigeria and its neighbours – Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Benin –
have deployed a 8,700-strong Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) to
fight around 4,000-6,000 Boko Haram Islamist militants.
Presidents from the Economic Community of Central African States
(ECOWAS) pledged in early 2015 to create a US$87m emergency fund for
military, medical, and logistical support for the MNJTF. Nigeria’s
current president expects Boko Haram to be defeated within a month. However, even with the presence of regional allies, Boko Haram is likely to go into hiding and conduct a guerrilla campaign.
Past policy vacuum
The way the government has addressed violence in the north has been
abysmal: very few measures have been taken. Muslim clerics identified
lack of good governance as the primary reason Boko Haram succeeded in
recruiting members. According to a US official, “they warned that similar crises would occur if the government failed to address social problems”.
In terms of social measures, when Boko Haram started fighting in
2009, a “societal reorientation programme” was created in the north.
However, according to one US official,
this programme only made it possible for Boko Haram to “recruit more
members”, as it had no impact on the population’s well-being.
In 2015, President Jonathan’s national security adviser, Sambo Dasuki, only mentioned the creation of a single social policy
– in Kuje prison in the capital Abuja which aims at deradicalising
former insurgents. The new government will have to develop social
policies to reduce inequalities in order to prevent further violence.
What the new government has to do
The economic involvement of the Nigerian government is inadequate.
Only half of the investment projects in the north were completed in
2014. In 2015, the government created a US$133m emergency fund for the
north in order to finance 94 different projects such as road
construction, railways, energy and agriculture, but the precise use of
this fund remains to be seen.
The new president will have to address three long-standing and
critical issues in the north: economic development, education and
health. Economic development is needed to counter Boko Haram, which is paying men around US$700-a-month to join its ranks.
The economy
The new government must tackle the difficult issue of unemployment
which, among all age groups, is at least 75%. Many young people,
especially recent graduates, say it is impossible to find decent work.
For the few who do have a job, the minimum wage is US$70 a month. The
new government will also have to address the lack of economic resources
and food in the north.
The new Nigerian government will have to prioritise education. When
Boko Haram started attacking civilians in 2009, it was known to oppose “western education models”. However, young men fighting for Boko Haram could not have had much knowledge of education.
In 2011 in northern Nigeria, half of the men had no education at all,
only 7% completed primary education, and only 6% completed secondary
education. Education in the north should therefore be a priority for
whoever has power next. This is important not only for men, but it is
also essential for women: in 2011, 65% of women had no education, 6%
completed primary education, and 3% completed secondary education.
Health
The new president will be held accountable for improving health in the north, as clinics are under-staffed, and women are ten timesmore likely to die in childbirth than in the south.
With these conditions Boko Haram filled a vacuum. The militants will
now be much harder to remove but ultimately, the next government can
take steps to start tackling the problems that allowed them to gain a
foothold.
The Ebola virus has killed more than 9,000 people
– about 2,000 in Guinea, 3,000 in Sierra Leone and 4,000 in Liberia.
The outbreak started in Guinea in December 2013, but the Ebola crisis
really started in April 2014 when it began to spread.
The initial international response was deemed “totally inadequate” by British MPs.
Since then efforts have improved, but here are six lessons that can be
learned from the problematic initial response – from the problems
highlighted by the MPs – and especially pertinent to those states that
have the capacity to react to epidemics.
1. Trust NGOs and build WHO expertise
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) alerted governments
as early as April 2014 about the Ebola problem, but it was not until
August that year that the World Health Organisation declared Ebola a
public health emergency. MSF was right about the scale of the problem. A
witness at the House of Commons, Fergus Drake, who is Director of
Global Programmes at Save the Children, said: “MSF have been the real
heroes, in terms of people on the ground and the scale of their
response.”
The four-month absence of reaction by the WHO had terrible
consequences for the areas affected by the Ebola virus, in a large part
because governments which had aid programmes that could be used for
epidemics chose to follow the advice of the WHO.
If the international community had reacted straight away, the outbreak could have been contained.
States should rely on the expertise of doctors on the ground, or make
sure that the WHO has a similar level of expertise if that is the advice
they want to follow. And the WHO should not replicate the work
conducted by NGOs.
2. Improve health facilities
The international community should address the fact that medical facilities were insufficient in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. At the outset of the outbreak, there were only
40 doctors for a total of 4m people in Liberia, 120 doctors for 6m
people in Sierra Leone, and 1,200 for 12m people in Guinea. Senegal and
Nigeria, which reacted as soon as people were diagnosed with Ebola, have
a more developed infrastructure of medical services, and local doctors
were able to respond to the Ebola outbreak. In Nigeria, experience
working to eradicate polio particularly helped.
However, in general, more doctors are desperately needed in the following states, which have
fewer than 100 doctors for 1m people: Guinea, Ghana, Congo, Mali,
Cameroon, Timor Leste, Guinea-Bissau, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Benin, Senegal,
Togo, Papua New Guinea, Rwanda, Eritrea, Lesotho, Central African
Republic, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Chad, Somalia, Burundi, Equatorial
Guinea, Ethiopia, Haiti, Sierra Leone, Malawi, Niger, Liberia, and
Tanzania.
To put this into context: the United Kingdom and the United States respectively have 2,800 and 2,400 doctors for 1m people.
3. Plan logistical responses
The UK had no detailed contingency plan for a sudden medical
emergency. According the parliamentary report, when the Ebola crisis was
in full swing the UK could only send 55 health professionals to
stricken countries, whereas Cuba committed 165 at various grades to work
in the UK-funded treatment centres.
The British government relied on
Save the Children to run Ebola facilities, but this NGO had never done
this before, and the first facility was only set up in November 2014.
Funding – for example for aid – is one thing but expertise that can
be deployed by international actors and especially local actors in
emergencies is also important. The Department for International
Development and other funding organisations could focus their aid on
education and health facilities. China, for instance, opened a hospital in Sierra Leone in 2012 and in Liberia in 2011 and 2014.
4. Follow scientific advice
The United Kingdom, the United States and France revoked the licences of planes with direct flight paths
to the regions where people were ill with Ebola, despite the absence of
scientific justification for doing so. This made it harder for NGOs and
doctors to access the region. The Ebola crisis led to unnecessary panic in the United States, but it is the responsibility of governments to look at the science and reassure rather than add to it.
5. Recognise states that contribute
And shame those who do not contribute enough. Until now, the UK and the US have been the most involved in committing funds
to fight the Ebola virus. However, taking into consideration the
population of each state, the British donated twice as much as the
Americans. The states lagging behind
have been Germany, France, Canada and especially Italy. Ebola is a
threat to all people in the world: every donor, and not only former
colonising states, should be engaged in fighting the virus.
6. Pharma should cover range of vaccines
One of the reasons why there was no vaccine for Ebola was that it
concerned few people in remote areas in African states. Margaret Chan,
Director-General of the WHO, said that Ebola vaccine was never developed “because it only affected poor African countries”.
Ebola was not the priority
of governments and pharmaceutical companies. Research on Ebola has been
conducted in North America, Europe, China and Africa. However, more
research is needed, and vaccines against viruses such as Ebola or
Marburg should be commercialised, and made available cheaply.